Marlborough Region Quarterly economic monitor - December 2019

| Portal

Total dairy payout

Dashboard comparator:

Highlights for Marlborough Region

  • Marlborough Region's total dairy payout for the 2018/19 season is estimated to have been approximately $42.1m.
  • Marlborough Region's dairy payout for the 2019/20 season is expected to be approximately $48.3m, $6.15m higher than last season, assuming that production levels from last season are maintained.
  • The total dairy payout for New Zealand is estimated to have been approximately $11,964m in the 2018/19 season, and is expected to be $1,746m higher in the 2019/20 season.

National overview

The dairy outlook improved further towards the end of 2019, with Fonterra raising the farmgate milk price midpoint from $7.05 to $7.30/kgms for the 2019/20 season. Analyst expectations and our own analysis support this price at present, with evidence of a constrained milk supply both domestically and internationally. Concerns over the COVID-19 outbreak may see a near-term softening in dairy prices, but with dry conditions persisting, milk volumes are expected to remain below last season’s collections. The higher milk price is expected to boost the national pay-out by $1.7b from the 2018/19 season.