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Timaru District Quarterly economic monitor - September 2020

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Total dairy payout

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Highlights for Timaru District

  • Timaru District's total dairy payout for the 2019/20 season is estimated to have been approximately $395m.
  • Timaru District's dairy payout for the 2020/21 season is expected to be approximately $377m, $18.8m lower than last season, assuming that production levels from last season are maintained.
  • The total dairy payout for New Zealand is estimated to have been approximately $13,537m in the 2019/20 season, and is expected to be $645m lower in the 2020/21 season.

National overview

Primary sector performance remains robust, as New Zealand exports continue their solid run. Dairy export values since February remain up 3.8%pa, although activity weakened in September and through into October. Dairy won’t escape the expected hit from COVID-19 but will weather the blow better. Fonterra has recently revised the midpoint milk price for the 2020/21 season to $6.80/kgms off the back of stronger GlobalDairyTrade performances – a 40c lift from May’s forecast. This rise in pay-out will bring an additional $758m into the economy. However, the 2020/21 pay-out is lower than the pay-out last season, with a $644m gap year-to-year.